Kyustendil vs Chavdar Etropole Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Kyustendil and 1.13 for Chavdar Etropole, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Kyustendil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kyustendil win

49.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kyustendil home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chavdar Etropole away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kyustendil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Kyustendil and 1.13 for Chavdar Etropole, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kyustendil win49%

Draw25%

Chavdar Etropole win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–010.4%
2–19.5%
2–08.4%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Kyustendil

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bansko · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Razlog · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Natsional Sofia · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 3-1 (W)

Chavdar Etropole

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kostinbrod · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Slivnishki geroy · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia II · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	9	2	1	21	29
2	Oborishte	11	6	4	1	11	22
3	Bansko	10	7	1	2	8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	6	1	3	8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	11	6	1	4	2	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	12	6	1	5	-1	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	6	0	5	6	18
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	5	2	5	-1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	5	0	6	2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	3	6	2	2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	5	0	5	1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	4	1	7	-15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	3	2	7	-6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	1	4	6	-8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	12	2	1	9	-18	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kyustendil win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.