Kyzyl-Zhar vs Ulytau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kyzyl-Zhar and 1.02 for Ulytau, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Kyzyl-Zhar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kyzyl-Zhar home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ulytau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kyzyl-Zhar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Kyzyl-Zhar and 1.02 for Ulytau, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kyzyl-Zhar win42%

Draw28%

Ulytau win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–013.0%
0–110.5%
0–010.3%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Kyzyl-Zhar

2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-1 (D)

Ulytau

2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhetysu · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
2	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	30	58
3	FC Astana	25	13	6	6	15	45
4	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	26	13	6	7	6	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	10	8	8	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	-1	37
8	Zhenys	27	8	8	11	-7	32
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	-8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	8	5	13	-9	29
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	7	7	13	-9	28
12	Atyrau	25	5	11	9	-6	26
13	Irtysh	26	6	8	12	-10	26
14	Kaisar	26	4	12	10	-11	24
15	Altay	26	5	8	13	-13	23
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	-19	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.