· Analysis updated 23:03 UTC
Kyzyltash vs Nart Cherkessk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Kyzyltash and 1.45 for Nart Cherkessk, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Kyzyltash the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kyzyltash home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nart Cherkessk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kyzyltash to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Kyzyltash and 1.45 for Nart Cherkessk, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.1% | 75.4% | 1.33 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.40 | 64.6% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.29 | 39.7% | 40.5% | 2.47 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.36 | 38.1% | 38.8% | 2.58 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 35.9% | 36.6% | 2.73 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.13 | 43.2% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 56.8% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.51 | 60.3% | 59.5% | 1.68 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.41 | 64.1% | 63.3% | 1.58 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.46 | 61.9% | 61.1% | 1.64 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.56 | 35.4% | 34.2% | 2.92 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.46 | 26.0% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kyzyltash
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Astrakhan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shahter Taganrog · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Chayka 2 · 1-3 (L)
Nart Cherkessk
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Makhachkala II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Izberbash · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Angust Nazran · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Druzhba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Nalchik · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · Kyzyltash 3-2 Nart Cherkessk (Second League - Group 1)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · Kyzyltash 0-1 Nart Cherkessk (Second League - Group 1)
Second League - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevastopol | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 50 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 3 | Rostov II | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 46 |
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 5 | Pobeda | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 33 |
| 6 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 31 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| 9 | Druzhba | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -6 | 24 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 21 | 6 | 0 | 15 | -38 | 18 |
| 13 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | -26 | 14 |
| 15 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -20 | 14 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 62 |
| 2 | KDV | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 49 |
| 4 | Akron II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -22 | 27 |
| 1 | Orenburg II | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 2 | Ural II | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 3 | Izhevsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -3 | 23 |
| 4 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 5 | Nosta | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 6 | Chelyabinsk II | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.