· Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
L'Aquila vs Termoli Calcio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for L'Aquila and 0.61 for Termoli Calcio, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives L'Aquila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
L'Aquila win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
L'Aquila home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Termoli Calcio away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.8%
- 2–013.9%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
L'Aquila
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Foligno Calcio · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Recanatese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santegidiese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Termoli Calcio · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pietralunga · 3-0 (W)
Termoli Calcio
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Trestina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Senigallia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Giulianova · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Angelana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Aquila · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · L'Aquila 1-0 Termoli Calcio (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · L'Aquila 1-1 Termoli Calcio (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · L'Aquila 1-0 Termoli Calcio (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2025-01-12T13:30:00.000Z · L'Aquila 2-0 Termoli Calcio (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2024-11-06T13:30:00.000Z · L'Aquila 1-0 Termoli Calcio (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2024-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · L'Aquila 1-1 Termoli Calcio (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2024-04-28T13:00:00.000Z · L'Aquila 0-0 Termoli Calcio (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2023-12-17T13:30:00.000Z · L'Aquila 3-2 Termoli Calcio (Serie D - Girone F)
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Teramo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Ancona | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vigor Senigallia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Notaresco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Real Giulianova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Montecchio Gallo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Recanatese | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Santegidiese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Pietralunga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Maceratese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Angelana | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is L'Aquila win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.