L'Escala vs Martinenc Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for L'Escala and 1.77 for Martinenc, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives L'Escala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.91 – 1.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

L'Escala home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates L'Escala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for L'Escala and 1.77 for Martinenc, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

L'Escala win42%

Draw22%

Martinenc win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.5%
2–18.1%
1–27.5%
2–27.2%
3–15.2%

Recent form

L'Escala

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Martinenc · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Europa II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grama · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol II · 0-1 (L)

Martinenc

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-13T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Grama · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.