· Analysis updated 22:35 UTC
L'Hospitalet vs Atlètic Lleida Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for L'Hospitalet and 1.01 for Atlètic Lleida, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives L'Hospitalet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
L'Hospitalet win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
L'Hospitalet home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlètic Lleida away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates L'Hospitalet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for L'Hospitalet and 1.01 for Atlètic Lleida, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
L'Hospitalet
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mollerussa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cornellà · 0-0 (D)
Atlètic Lleida
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mollerussa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Pobla Mafumet | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Vilanova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Martinenc | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlètic Lleida | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Grama | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Europa II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Vilassar Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | San Cristóbal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is L'Hospitalet win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.