L'Hospitalet vs Badalona Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for L'Hospitalet and 1.05 for Badalona, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives L'Hospitalet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

L'Hospitalet win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

L'Hospitalet home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Badalona away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

L'Hospitalet win50%

Draw25%

Badalona win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–011.4%
2–19.4%
2–09.0%
0–17.6%

Recent form

L'Hospitalet

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cornellà · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Comillas · 2-3 (L)

Badalona

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Tona · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Montañesa · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · L'Hospitalet 3-1 Badalona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2026-05-17T10:30:00.000Z · L'Hospitalet 0-2 Badalona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2026-05-03T10:30:00.000Z · L'Hospitalet 2-3 Badalona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2026-01-04T11:00:00.000Z · L'Hospitalet 0-0 Badalona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2021-01-17T17:00:00.000Z · L'Hospitalet 0-2 Badalona (Primera División RFEF - Group 3)
2020-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · L'Hospitalet 0-1 Badalona (Primera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is L'Hospitalet win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.