Rolvsrud stadion · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Lørenskog vs Kjelsås Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lørenskog and 2.38 for Kjelsås, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Kjelsås the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kjelsås win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lørenskog home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kjelsås away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kjelsås to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 24% / 19% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Lørenskog and 2.38 for Kjelsås, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.4%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–25.9%
Recent form
Lørenskog
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kjelsås · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trygg/Lade · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grorud · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skeid · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjørdals-Blink · 0-2 (L)
Kjelsås
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lørenskog · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ull/Kisa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Follo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grorud · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 57 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 53 |
| 3 | Levanger | 24 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 49 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 49 |
| 5 | Grorud | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 46 |
| 6 | Stjørdals-Blink | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 36 |
| 7 | Tromsdalen Uil | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 35 |
| 8 | Lørenskog | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 34 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 12 | Follo | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -21 | 17 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 24 | 4 | 1 | 19 | -48 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | -30 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kjelsås win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.