· Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
La Almunia vs Almudévar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for La Almunia and 1.29 for Almudévar, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Almudévar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Almunia home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almudévar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almudévar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for La Almunia and 1.29 for Almudévar, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
La Almunia
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Robres · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Épila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Belchite 97 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrillas · 3-3 (D)
Almudévar
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ejea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuarte · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Illueca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Caspe · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fraga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Cuarte | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Épila | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlético Monzón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Caspe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Almudévar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | La Almunia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Illueca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | CD Sietamo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Andorra CF | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Belchite 97 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Robres | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.