· Analysis updated 11:59 UTC
La Calamine vs SG-Tertre-Hautrage Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for La Calamine and 1.75 for SG-Tertre-Hautrage, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives SG-Tertre-Hautrage the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Calamine home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SG-Tertre-Hautrage away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SG-Tertre-Hautrage to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for La Calamine and 1.75 for SG-Tertre-Hautrage, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
La Calamine
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Entité Manageoise · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aywaille · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Acren-Lessines · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Mouscronnois · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs RUS Binche · 4-1 (W)
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockay-Warfusée · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Verviers · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Huy · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Richelle United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - ACFF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SG-Tertre-Hautrage | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Crossing Schaerbeek | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Jette | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Stade Mouscronnois | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Huy | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Braine | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | AS Eupen II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Richelle United | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Ganshoren | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Ostiches | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | La Calamine | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | RUS Binche | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Stade Verviers | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Acren-Lessines | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Stockay-Warfusée | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Entité Manageoise | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Union Namur | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -21 | 4 |
| 18 | Aywaille | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.