· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
La Calzada vs Comillas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for La Calzada and 0.96 for Comillas, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives La Calzada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Calzada win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Calzada home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comillas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Calzada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for La Calzada and 0.96 for Comillas, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
La Calzada
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Comillas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Varea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vianés · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Casalarreina · 3-0 (W)
Comillas
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs La Calzada · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pradejón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcial · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cenicero · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berceo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Haro Deportivo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Calahorra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | La Calzada | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Pradejón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Agoncillo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Anguiano | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Oyonesa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Yagüe | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Cenicero | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Comillas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Calzada win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.