· Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
La Calzada vs San Ignacio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for La Calzada and 1.41 for San Ignacio, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives La Calzada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Calzada home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Ignacio away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Calzada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for La Calzada and 1.41 for San Ignacio, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
La Calzada
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Comillas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Varea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vianés · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Casalarreina · 3-0 (W)
San Ignacio
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pasaia KE · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lagun Onak · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs La Calzada · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · La Calzada 1-4 San Ignacio (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.