Stade Claude Bétard · Analysis updated 12:25 UTC
La Châtaigneraie vs Vendée Fontenay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for La Châtaigneraie and 1.08 for Vendée Fontenay, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives La Châtaigneraie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Châtaigneraie win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vendée Fontenay away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Châtaigneraie to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for La Châtaigneraie and 1.08 for Vendée Fontenay, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
La Châtaigneraie
Vendée Fontenay
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chauvigny · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panazol · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs La Châtaigneraie · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UF Touraine · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · La Châtaigneraie 2-1 Vendée Fontenay (National 3 - Group B)
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · La Châtaigneraie 2-2 Vendée Fontenay (National 3 - Group B)
- 2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · La Châtaigneraie 3-2 Vendée Fontenay (National 3 - Group B)
- 2025-01-18T17:00:00.000Z · La Châtaigneraie 0-4 Vendée Fontenay (National 3 - Group B)
- 2024-02-03T16:00:00.000Z · La Châtaigneraie 0-0 Vendée Fontenay (National 3 - Group D)
- 2023-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · La Châtaigneraie 2-5 Vendée Fontenay (National 3 - Group D)
- 2022-05-28T16:00:00.000Z · La Châtaigneraie 0-1 Vendée Fontenay (National 3 - Group B)
- 2021-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · La Châtaigneraie 0-1 Vendée Fontenay (National 3 - Group B)
National 3 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 57 |
| 2 | UF Touraine | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 56 |
| 3 | Nantes II | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 51 |
| 4 | Challans | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | La Châtaigneraie | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | -3 | 39 |
| 6 | Vendée Fontenay | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -8 | 32 |
| 7 | Les Sables | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -1 | 32 |
| 8 | Panazol | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 32 |
| 9 | Châteauroux II | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 30 |
| 11 | USSA Vertou | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Chauvigny | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | -12 | 24 |
| 13 | Angers SCO II | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Châtellerault | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -37 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Châtaigneraie win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.