Estadio Metropolitano de Techo · Analysis updated 11:30 UTC
La Equidad W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for La Equidad W and 1.00 for Atlético Bucaramanga W, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives La Equidad W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Equidad W win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Equidad W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Bucaramanga W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Equidad W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for La Equidad W and 1.00 for Atlético Bucaramanga W, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–18.5%
- 3–07.5%
Recent form
La Equidad W
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Millonarios W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional Palmira W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Nacional W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Nacional W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira W · 3-0 (W)
Atlético Bucaramanga W
- 2026-08-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Once Caldas W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Junior W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Llaneros W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cali W · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T22:30:00.000Z · La Equidad W 4-0 Atlético Bucaramanga W (Liga Femenina)
- 2025-03-16T20:30:00.000Z · La Equidad W 0-0 Atlético Bucaramanga W (Liga Femenina)
- 2023-05-18T20:00:00.000Z · La Equidad W 6-0 Atlético Bucaramanga W (Liga Femenina)
- 2022-03-19T21:00:00.000Z · La Equidad W 1-0 Atlético Bucaramanga W (Liga Femenina)
Liga Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali W | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 61 |
| 2 | Millonarios W | 24 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | Atlético Nacional W | 24 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 48 |
| 4 | América de Cali W | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 45 |
| 5 | Santa Fe W | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | La Equidad W | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Internacional Palmira W | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Orsomarso W | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín W | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Fortaleza W | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Atlético Bucaramanga W | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 17 |
| 12 | Llaneros W | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -22 | 13 |
| 13 | Junior W | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Santander W | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Once Caldas W | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto W | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | -16 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Equidad W win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.