Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco · Referee Antonio Aparicio · Analysis updated 03:04 UTC
La Estrella vs Plasencia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for La Estrella and 1.25 for Plasencia, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives La Estrella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Plasencia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Estrella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for La Estrella and 1.25 for Plasencia, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
La Estrella
Plasencia
- 2023-04-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Llerenense · 0-0 (D)
- 2023-04-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fuente Cantos · 2-1 (W)
- 2023-04-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs La Estrella · 2-1 (W)
- 2023-04-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Miajadas · 1-1 (D)
- 2023-03-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olivenza · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Llerenense | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Moralo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Villanovense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Castuera | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Gévora | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Jerez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Cabeza Buey | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Villafranca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | CD Zafra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Quintana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Jaraíz | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Santa Amalia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Montijo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Plasencia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.