· Analysis updated 17:17 UTC
La Linguère vs Casa Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for La Linguère and 1.20 for Casa Sport, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Casa Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Casa Sport win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Linguère home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Casa Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 22% / 30% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for La Linguère and 1.20 for Casa Sport, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.9%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–010.5%
Recent form
La Linguère
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorée · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wally Daan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AJEL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ouakam · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HLM · 0-0 (D)
Casa Sport
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · La Linguère 0-0 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2026-01-07T16:30:00.000Z · La Linguère 2-3 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2025-04-23T17:00:00.000Z · La Linguère 4-3 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2024-11-24T16:30:00.000Z · La Linguère 0-0 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2024-02-25T16:30:00.000Z · La Linguère 1-0 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2023-10-29T16:30:00.000Z · La Linguère 2-2 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2023-04-30T16:30:00.000Z · La Linguère 0-1 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2022-11-19T16:30:00.000Z · La Linguère 0-1 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2022-04-16T17:00:00.000Z · La Linguère 1-1 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
- 2021-12-22T16:30:00.000Z · La Linguère 0-1 Casa Sport (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Casa Sport win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.