· Analysis updated 06:25 UTC
La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for La Nucía and 0.40 for Lorca Deportiva, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives La Nucía the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Nucía win
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Nucía home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lorca Deportiva away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Nucía to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 23% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for La Nucía and 0.40 for Lorca Deportiva, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.4%
- 2–017.4%
- 0–013.2%
- 3–09.4%
- 1–18.6%
Recent form
La Nucía
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorca Deportiva · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano · 1-0 (W)
Lorca Deportiva
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellonense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ucam Murcia | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Castellón II | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Cieza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Deportiva Minera | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | La Nucía | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Orihuela | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | Atlético Baleares | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Yeclano | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Poblense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Alcoyano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Lorca Deportiva | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Mallorca II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Intercity | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Real Murcia II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Elche II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Valencia II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Peña Deportiva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Nucía win, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.