Stade Henri-Desgranges · Analysis updated 16:46 UTC
La Roche VF vs Valenciennes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for La Roche VF and 0.85 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives La Roche VF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Roche VF win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Roche VF home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valenciennes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Roche VF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for La Roche VF and 0.85 for Valenciennes, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
La Roche VF
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aubagne · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Thionville Lusitanos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Valenciennes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Villefranche · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Quevilly · 1-1 (D)
Valenciennes
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Puy Foot · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Fleury 91 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · La Roche VF 3-2 Valenciennes (Ligue 3)
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Amiens | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Roche VF win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.