· Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
La Solana vs Villarrobledo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for La Solana and 1.58 for Villarrobledo, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Villarrobledo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarrobledo win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Solana home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarrobledo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
La Solana
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrobledo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toledo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 0-3 (L)
Villarrobledo
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villacañas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Solana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Noblejas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrubia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · La Solana 0-1 Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2026-04-02T15:00:00.000Z · La Solana 1-2 Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2025-11-23T16:00:00.000Z · La Solana 3-1 Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2024-03-03T16:00:00.000Z · La Solana 1-1 Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2023-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · La Solana 0-1 Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2023-02-12T16:00:00.000Z · La Solana 1-0 Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2022-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · La Solana 2-2 Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Illescas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Toledo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | CD Villa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Almansa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Tarancón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Villacañas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Marchamalo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | San Clemente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Noblejas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Quintanar del Rey | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | La Solana | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Villarrubia | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarrobledo win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.