· Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
La Tribu de Cd. Juarez vs Cañoneros Marina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.10 expected goals for La Tribu de Cd. Juarez and 0.63 for Cañoneros Marina, a combined total of 4.74. That distribution gives La Tribu de Cd. Juarez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
La Tribu de Cd. Juarez win
92.5% probability
Expected goals
4.10 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Tribu de Cd. Juarez home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Cañoneros Marina away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Tribu de Cd. Juarez to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 93% / 5% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.10 goals for La Tribu de Cd. Juarez and 0.63 for Cañoneros Marina, a combined 4.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
8%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–010.3%
- 3–010.1%
- 5–08.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 4–16.6%
Recent form
La Tribu de Cd. Juarez
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Correcaminos UAT II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Apodaca · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaqueros Reynosa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Guerreros · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Acatlan · 4-0 (W)
Cañoneros Marina
- 2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Artesanos Metepec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guerreros del Pacifico · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Dragones de Oaxaca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Refineros · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Tribu de Cd. Juarez win, at 92.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.