Laagri kunstmurustaadion · Referee K. Kaivoja · Analysis updated 15:51 UTC
Laagri vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Laagri and 1.68 for Kalju Nomme, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Kalju Nomme the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kalju Nomme win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Laagri home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalju Nomme away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kalju Nomme to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Laagri and 1.68 for Kalju Nomme, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 52.7% vs market 41.1%, edge +11.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 52.7% | 1.90 | +11.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.20 | 42.7% | 43.4% | 2.30 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.8% | 24.1% | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 80.3% | 80.6% | 1.24 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.60 | 56.5% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 4.60 | 19.7% | 19.3% | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 47.3% | 2.11 | -11.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Laagri
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuressaare · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 0-2 (L)
Kalju Nomme
- 2026-10-17T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kalju Nomme win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.