Estádio Capitão Josino da Costa · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Lagoa vs Alcochetense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lagoa and 1.05 for Alcochetense, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Lagoa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lagoa win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lagoa home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Alcochetense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lagoa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Lagoa and 1.05 for Alcochetense, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Lagoa
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético CP · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Serpa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara B · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aljustrelense · 1-1 (D)
Alcochetense
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara B · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aljustrelense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Benfica · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imortal Albufeira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fayal · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Lajense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lagoa win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.