· Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Laguna vs Sousa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Laguna and 0.89 for Sousa, a combined total of 1.52. That distribution gives Sousa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
75.4% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Laguna home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sousa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 25% / 36% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Laguna and 0.89 for Sousa, a combined 1.52 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 28%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 0–119.4%
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Laguna
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Central SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs ABC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maguary PE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs America-RN · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sousa · 0-1 (L)
Sousa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.