· Analysis updated 14:23 UTC
Lake Macquarie vs Dudley Redhead United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Lake Macquarie and 1.03 for Dudley Redhead United, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Lake Macquarie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lake Macquarie win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lake Macquarie home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lake Macquarie to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Lake Macquarie and 1.03 for Dudley Redhead United, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Lake Macquarie
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto Awaba Stags · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Cardiff · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Singleton Strikers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Croatia FC · 2-1 (W)
Dudley Redhead United
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-28T06:00:00.000Z · Lake Macquarie 7-2 Dudley Redhead United (NNSW League 1)
- 2026-04-12T05:00:00.000Z · Lake Macquarie 3-1 Dudley Redhead United (NNSW League 1)
- 2025-06-20T10:00:00.000Z · Lake Macquarie 2-3 Dudley Redhead United (NNSW League 1)
- 2025-04-06T04:00:00.000Z · Lake Macquarie 2-1 Dudley Redhead United (NNSW League 1)
NNSW League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallsend Red Devils | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lake Macquarie | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Dudley Redhead United | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | New Lambton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Newcastle Croatia FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | West Wallsend | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 7 | Cessnock City Hornets | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Singleton Strikers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Toronto Awaba Stags | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 10 | South Cardiff | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lake Macquarie win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.