· Analysis updated 01:59 UTC
Lake Macquarie vs South Cardiff Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.28 expected goals for Lake Macquarie and 0.88 for South Cardiff, a combined total of 4.17. That distribution gives Lake Macquarie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lake Macquarie win
82.8% probability
Expected goals
3.28 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lake Macquarie home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
South Cardiff away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lake Macquarie to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 11% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.28 goals for Lake Macquarie and 0.88 for South Cardiff, a combined 4.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.1%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–18.1%
- 4–07.5%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Lake Macquarie
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto Awaba Stags · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Cardiff · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Singleton Strikers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Croatia FC · 2-1 (W)
South Cardiff
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs West Wallsend · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Lake Macquarie · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-02T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Wallsend Red Devils · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Dudley Redhead United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-11T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Singleton Strikers · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NNSW League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallsend Red Devils | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lake Macquarie | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Dudley Redhead United | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | New Lambton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Newcastle Croatia FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | West Wallsend | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 7 | Cessnock City Hornets | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Singleton Strikers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Toronto Awaba Stags | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 10 | South Cardiff | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lake Macquarie win, at 82.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.