· Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Lake Macquarie vs West Wallsend Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.91 expected goals for Lake Macquarie and 1.41 for West Wallsend, a combined total of 5.32. That distribution gives Lake Macquarie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lake Macquarie win
80.6% probability
Expected goals
3.91 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lake Macquarie home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lake Macquarie to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 10% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.91 goals for Lake Macquarie and 1.41 for West Wallsend, a combined 5.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 73%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.9%
- 4–16.7%
- 2–15.3%
- 5–15.2%
- 3–04.9%
Recent form
Lake Macquarie
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto Awaba Stags · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Cardiff · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Singleton Strikers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Croatia FC · 2-1 (W)
West Wallsend
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NNSW League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallsend Red Devils | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lake Macquarie | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Dudley Redhead United | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | New Lambton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Newcastle Croatia FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | West Wallsend | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 7 | Cessnock City Hornets | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Singleton Strikers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Toronto Awaba Stags | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 10 | South Cardiff | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lake Macquarie win, at 80.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.