· Analysis updated 02:38 UTC
Laktaši vs Rudar Prijedor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Laktaši and 0.38 for Rudar Prijedor, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Laktaši the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Laktaši win
73.8% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rudar Prijedor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Laktaši to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 20% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Laktaši and 0.38 for Rudar Prijedor, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 27%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.7%
- 2–018.4%
- 3–011.5%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.55 (model 73.3% vs market 59.2%, edge +14.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.55 | 59.2% | 73.3% | 1.36 | +14.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 92.0% | 93.3% | 1.07 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.70 | 25.6% | 26.2% | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.22 | 73.6% | 73.8% | 1.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.5% | 19.5% | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 13.00 | 6.9% | 6.7% | 14.93 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 82.4% | 80.5% | 1.24 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.25 | 40.8% | 26.7% | 3.75 | -14.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Laktaši
Rudar Prijedor
- 2026-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Famos Vojkovići · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omarska · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laktaši · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 33 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 31 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Potkozarje | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | FK Majevica Lopare | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Kozara Gradiška | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Famos Vojkovići | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 9 | Rudar Prijedor | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Slavija | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Sutjeska Foča | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Velež Nevesinje | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 11 |
| 13 | Omarska | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Laktaši win, at 73.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.