· Analysis updated 02:43 UTC
Laktaši vs Zvijezda 09 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.65 expected goals for Laktaši and 0.59 for Zvijezda 09, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Laktaši the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Laktaši win
90.5% probability
Expected goals
3.65 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zvijezda 09 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Laktaši to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 7% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.65 goals for Laktaši and 0.59 for Zvijezda 09, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 43%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.7%
- 4–010.7%
- 2–09.6%
- 5–07.8%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Laktaši
Zvijezda 09
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Omarska · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar Prijedor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drina Zvornik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska Foča · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 33 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 31 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Potkozarje | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | FK Majevica Lopare | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Kozara Gradiška | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Famos Vojkovići | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 9 | Rudar Prijedor | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Slavija | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Sutjeska Foča | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Velež Nevesinje | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 11 |
| 13 | Omarska | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Laktaši win, at 90.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.