700th Anniversary Stadium · Referee T. Somsingha · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.55 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Ratchaburi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lamphun Warrior home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ratchaburi away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ratchaburi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.55 for Ratchaburi, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Lamphun Warrior
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rasi Salai United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Port FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Prachuap · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 1-1 (D)
Ratchaburi
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayong FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangkok United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayutthaya FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanchanaburi · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Uthai Thani | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Bangkok United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Prachuap | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Port FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Rayong FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sisaket United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Chiangrai United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pattani | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Sukhothai FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Rasi Salai United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 15 | Lamphun Warrior | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.