700th Anniversary Stadium · Referee P. Phansamo · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.99 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Uthai Thani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uthai Thani win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lamphun Warrior home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Uthai Thani away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.1%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Lamphun Warrior
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rasi Salai United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Port FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Prachuap · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 1-1 (D)
Uthai Thani
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayutthaya FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Pattani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lamphun Warrior · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Prachuap · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · Lamphun Warrior 1-4 Uthai Thani (Thai League 1)
- 2026-03-21T12:00:00.000Z · Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Uthai Thani (Thai League 1)
- 2025-11-23T12:00:00.000Z · Lamphun Warrior 2-2 Uthai Thani (Thai League 1)
- 2025-04-27T11:00:00.000Z · Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Uthai Thani (Thai League 1)
- 2024-08-11T11:30:00.000Z · Lamphun Warrior 1-0 Uthai Thani (Thai League 1)
- 2024-05-13T11:30:00.000Z · Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Uthai Thani (Thai League 1)
- 2023-12-16T12:00:00.000Z · Lamphun Warrior 2-2 Uthai Thani (Thai League 1)
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Port FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rayong FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sisaket United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Chiangrai United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uthai Thani win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.