· Analysis updated 02:34 UTC
Lancaster City vs Cleethorpes Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lancaster City and 2.06 for Cleethorpes Town, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Cleethorpes Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cleethorpes Town win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lancaster City home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cleethorpes Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cleethorpes Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 14% / 20% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Lancaster City and 2.06 for Cleethorpes Town, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.8%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–38.1%
Recent form
Lancaster City
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Avro · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilkeston Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whitby Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-5 (L)
Cleethorpes Town
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hyde United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Workington · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Redcar Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ashton United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 17 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 21 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cleethorpes Town win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.