Stade de Marignac · Analysis updated 13:11 UTC
Lancy vs Martigny Sports Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Lancy and 1.65 for Martigny Sports, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Lancy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lancy win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lancy home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Martigny Sports away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Lancy
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Coffrane · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Payerne · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chênois · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vevey Sports · 2-1 (W)
Martigny Sports
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sion II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Payerne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Monthey · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Naters · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Lancy 2-1 Martigny Sports (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2025-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Lancy 4-1 Martigny Sports (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2024-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Lancy 1-1 Martigny Sports (2. Liga Interregional - Group 1)
- 2023-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · Lancy 0-0 Martigny Sports (2. Liga Interregional - Group 1)
- 2022-05-07T15:00:00.000Z · Lancy 1-2 Martigny Sports (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2021-10-30T15:30:00.000Z · Lancy 2-1 Martigny Sports (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2021-06-26T14:00:00.000Z · Lancy 0-2 Martigny Sports (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2019-10-19T14:30:00.000Z · Lancy 1-0 Martigny Sports (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azzurri Bienne | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Prishtina Bern | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 26 |
| 3 | Servette II | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | Lausanne Sport II | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Naters | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 17 |
| 6 | Sion II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Portalban / Gletterens | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Monthey | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Chênois | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Lancy | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | La Chaux-de-Fonds | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 13 |
| 12 | Echallens | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | Meyrin | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Stade Payerne | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Coffrane | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Vevey Sports | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lancy win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.