· Analysis updated 06:28 UTC
Lancy vs Terre Sainte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Lancy and 1.07 for Terre Sainte, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Lancy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lancy win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lancy home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Terre Sainte away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lancy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Lancy and 1.07 for Terre Sainte, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Lancy
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Coffrane · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Payerne · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chênois · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vevey Sports · 2-1 (W)
Terre Sainte
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lancy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Amical Saint-Prex · 1-9 (L)
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Martigny Sports · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lancy win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.