· Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
Landsberg vs Illertissen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Landsberg and 3.98 for Illertissen, a combined total of 5.63. That distribution gives Illertissen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Illertissen win
77.7% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 3.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Landsberg home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Illertissen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Illertissen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 11% / 11% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Landsberg and 3.98 for Illertissen, a combined 5.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.2%
- 1–46.2%
- 2–35.1%
- 2–45.1%
- 1–54.9%
Recent form
Landsberg
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wacker Burghausen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Buchbach · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV 1860 München · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eichstätt · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth II · 0-2 (L)
Illertissen
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayreuth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Landsberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwaben Augsburg · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Illertissen win, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.