· Analysis updated 22:54 UTC
Langenthal vs Thun II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Langenthal and 1.75 for Thun II, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Langenthal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Langenthal win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Langenthal home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thun II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–16.2%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Langenthal
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Delémont · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Monthey · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buochs · 2-1 (W)
Thun II
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Solothurn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Wohlen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Langenthal 2-2 Thun II (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2025-03-26T19:00:00.000Z · Langenthal 2-0 Thun II (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2024-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · Langenthal 1-1 Thun II (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2024-05-12T12:00:00.000Z · Langenthal 2-0 Thun II (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2023-11-05T14:00:00.000Z · Langenthal 1-2 Thun II (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2022-11-27T14:00:00.000Z · Langenthal 1-1 Thun II (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2022-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Langenthal 3-3 Thun II (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Courtételle | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Schötz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Muttenz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Solothurn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Delémont | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Concordia Basel | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Buochs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muri-Gümligen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Grasshopper II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Zug | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Bassecourt | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Thun II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Wohlen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Langenthal win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.