Langfang Glory City vs Guangdong Mingtu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Langfang Glory City and 1.04 for Guangdong Mingtu, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Guangdong Mingtu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guangdong Mingtu away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guangdong Mingtu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 31% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Langfang Glory City and 1.04 for Guangdong Mingtu, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Langfang Glory City win34%

Draw31%

Guangdong Mingtu win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–113.6%
1–113.5%
0–013.0%
1–013.0%
0–27.1%

Recent form

Langfang Glory City

Guangdong Mingtu

2026-09-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Changchun Xidu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Second · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Langfang Glory City · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Wuhan Three Towns II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Yichun Grand Tiger · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · Langfang Glory City 1-0 Guangdong Mingtu (League Two)
2026-06-13T11:30:00.000Z · Langfang Glory City 1-1 Guangdong Mingtu (League Two)
2025-10-04T07:30:00.000Z · Langfang Glory City 2-0 Guangdong Mingtu (League Two)
2025-08-31T08:00:00.000Z · Langfang Glory City 0-1 Guangdong Mingtu (League Two)

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shanghai Port II	28	15	5	8	19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	28	15	5	8	13	50
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	28	15	4	9	14	49
4	Dalian Kewei	27	12	12	3	11	48
5	Shandong Taishan II	27	13	8	6	13	47
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	11	8	8	9	41
7	Langfang Glory City	28	9	14	5	-4	41
8	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	10	10	8	5	40
9	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	10	9	8	6	39
10	Dalian Yingbo B	28	9	12	7	4	39
11	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	11	6	10	4	39
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	8	13	6	8	37
13	Xiamen Feilu	28	9	10	9	4	37
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	7	14	6	4	35
15	Rizhao Yuqi	28	6	16	6	-3	34
16	Qingdao Red Lions	28	7	11	10	-2	32
17	Changchun Xidu	27	6	13	8	-10	31
18	Shangyu Pterosaur	28	7	10	11	-17	31
19	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	7	9	12	-7	30
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	6	9	12	-4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	28	5	12	11	-14	27
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	28	5	10	13	-12	25
23	BIT	28	5	10	13	-21	25
24	Shanghai Second	27	2	12	13	-20	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.