Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal · Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Langreo vs Salamanca UDS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Langreo and 1.05 for Salamanca UDS, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Langreo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Langreo home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Salamanca UDS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–111.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Langreo
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Marino de Luanco · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Valladolid II · 0-3 (L)
Salamanca UDS
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RSD Alcalá · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Derio · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Caudal · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-28T17:00:00.000Z · Langreo 1-0 Salamanca UDS (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2026-01-04T16:00:00.000Z · Langreo 1-1 Salamanca UDS (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-04-27T10:00:00.000Z · Langreo 1-3 Salamanca UDS (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-12-15T16:00:00.000Z · Langreo 3-1 Salamanca UDS (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-04-17T15:00:00.000Z · Langreo 1-1 Salamanca UDS (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-11-28T16:00:00.000Z · Langreo 0-1 Salamanca UDS (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Bergantiños | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Compostela | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Amorebieta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Portugalete | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Gernika | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Ourense CF | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Real Oviedo II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Basconia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Atlético Astorga | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Arosa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Llanera | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Marino de Luanco | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.