Langreo vs UD Ourense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Langreo and 1.26 for UD Ourense, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Langreo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Langreo win

46.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Langreo home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UD Ourense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Langreo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Langreo and 1.26 for UD Ourense, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Langreo win46%

Draw24%

UD Ourense win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–19.3%
1–09.1%
2–07.4%
1–27.2%

Recent form

Langreo

2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Marino de Luanco · 1-6 (L)
2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Valladolid II · 0-3 (L)

UD Ourense

2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Unión · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mirandes · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Langreo win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.