Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 600:15

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Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus · Referee Sebastian Zunino, Argentina · Analysis updated 13:18 UTC

Lanus vs Argentinos JRS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lanus and 0.96 for Argentinos JRS, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Lanus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.09 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lanus home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Argentinos JRS away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Lanus win38%

Draw30%

Argentinos JRS win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–014.0%
1–113.5%
0–012.9%
0–112.4%
2–07.6%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.14	82.8%	84.8%	1.18	+2.0
Both teams to score	No	1.62	57.0%	59.0%	1.69	+2.0
Goals	Under 2.5	1.45	65.1%	66.3%	1.51	+1.2
Match result	Home	2.50	37.3%	38.2%	2.62	+0.9
Match result	Away	3.00	31.1%	31.5%	3.17	+0.4
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.36	68.3%	68.5%	1.46	+0.2
Double chance	Home/Away	1.33	69.8%	69.7%	1.43	-0.1
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.50	61.9%	61.8%	1.62	-0.1
Match result	Draw	2.96	31.5%	30.3%	3.30	-1.2
Goals	Over 2.5	2.70	34.9%	33.7%	2.97	-1.2
Goals	Over 3.5	5.50	17.2%	15.2%	6.58	-2.0
Both teams to score	Yes	2.15	43.0%	41.0%	2.44	-2.0

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Lanus

2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-22T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 3-0 (W)

Argentinos JRS

2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-25T00:15:00.000Z · Lanus 1-1 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2026-05-10T01:15:00.000Z · Lanus 0-2 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2026-03-27T00:00:00.000Z · Lanus 1-2 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-09-09T00:10:00.000Z · Lanus 0-1 Argentinos JRS (Copa Argentina)
2024-07-30T00:00:00.000Z · Lanus 0-2 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2023-03-21T00:00:00.000Z · Lanus 0-0 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-10-06T22:00:00.000Z · Lanus 0-4 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2021-10-30T00:15:00.000Z · Lanus 1-0 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2020-03-16T22:00:00.000Z · Lanus 0-1 Argentinos JRS (Copa de la Superliga)
2020-02-08T00:10:00.000Z · Lanus 0-0 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	9	2	2	10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	6	6	1	7	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	13	6	6	1	5	24
5	Lanus	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Newells Old Boys	13	5	5	3	3	20
7	Gimnasia M.	13	6	2	5	2	20
8	Independiente	13	5	4	4	-1	19
9	San Lorenzo	13	5	2	6	-5	17
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	4	2	7	1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Deportivo Riestra	13	2	6	5	-3	12
13	Platense	13	2	5	6	-7	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	13	2	3	8	-8	9
1	Rosario Central	13	7	4	2	9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	7	4	2	6	25
3	Belgrano Cordoba	13	6	4	3	4	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	6	4	3	1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	River Plate	13	6	2	5	5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	5	4	4	1	19
8	Huracan	13	5	4	4	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	5	4	4	-4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	3	5	5	-1	14
11	Tigre	13	3	4	6	-2	13
12	Banfield	13	3	4	6	-5	13
13	Racing Club	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	2	3	8	-9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	2	2	9	-8	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.