· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Lao Toyota vs Ezra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lao Toyota and 3.07 for Ezra, a combined total of 4.04. That distribution gives Ezra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ezra win
78.9% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 3.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ezra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 9% / 13% / 79% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Lao Toyota and 3.07 for Ezra, a combined 4.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 59%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 79% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.5%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–38.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–46.5%
Recent form
Lao Toyota
Ezra
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Lao League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ezra | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 |
| 2 | Salavan United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Viengchanh | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Savannakhet | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Luangprabang FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 6 | Champasak United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Namtha United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 8 | Lao Army | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Lao Toyota | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Master 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
| 11 | Oudomxay Entremets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ezra win, at 78.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.