New Laos National Stadium · Referee H. Choi · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Laos vs Thailand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Laos and 3.24 for Thailand, a combined total of 4.24. That distribution gives Thailand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thailand win
80.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 3.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Laos home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thailand away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thailand to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 8% / 12% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Laos and 3.24 for Thailand, a combined 4.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.2%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–46.6%
Recent form
Laos
- 2026-09-27T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-4 (L)
Thailand
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · Laos 0-5 Thailand (ASEAN Championship)
- 2024-11-17T12:30:00.000Z · Laos 1-1 Thailand (Friendlies)
ASEAN Championship table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thailand win, at 80.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.