· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Laredo vs Escobedo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Laredo and 1.33 for Escobedo, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Laredo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Escobedo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Laredo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Laredo and 1.33 for Escobedo, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Laredo
Escobedo
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Revilla · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solares · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Laredo · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · Laredo 2-0 Escobedo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · Laredo 3-1 Escobedo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Laredo 0-0 Escobedo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2026-03-01T11:00:00.000Z · Laredo 2-0 Escobedo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2025-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · Laredo 1-0 Escobedo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2025-01-19T11:00:00.000Z · Laredo 0-0 Escobedo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · Laredo 1-0 Escobedo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · Laredo 2-0 Escobedo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Laredo 1-2 Escobedo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2022-08-10T17:00:00.000Z · Laredo 3-0 Escobedo (Friendlies Clubs)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Laredo | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Bezana | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Revilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Cayón | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sámano | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Torina | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Selaya | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Solares | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | Barquereño | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.