AEL FC Arena · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Larisa and 0.60 for Asteras Tripolis II, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Larisa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Larisa win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Larisa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Asteras Tripolis II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Larisa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 25% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Larisa and 0.60 for Asteras Tripolis II, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.0%
- 2–014.0%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Larisa
- 2026-10-11T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Marko · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyrgos 1968 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kalamata · 1-1 (D)
Asteras Tripolis II
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Anagennisi Karditsas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kallithea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Panserraikos · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Larisa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Panionios | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ellas Syros | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Kallithea | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Panthrakikos | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Panserraikos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Asteras Tripolis II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Apollon Pontou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | PAOK II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Pyrgos 1968 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Niki Volos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Zakynthos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Larisa win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.