AEL FC Arena · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Larisa vs Zakynthos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Larisa and 1.00 for Zakynthos, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Larisa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Larisa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zakynthos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Larisa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Larisa and 1.00 for Zakynthos, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–013.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Larisa
- 2026-10-11T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Marko · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyrgos 1968 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kalamata · 1-1 (D)
Zakynthos
- 2026-10-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panionios · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ellas Syros · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Larisa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2016-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · Larisa 1-0 Zakynthos (Football League)
- 2016-01-17T13:00:00.000Z · Larisa 2-0 Zakynthos (Football League)
- 2015-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · Larisa 2-0 Zakynthos (Football League)
- 2015-01-28T13:00:00.000Z · Larisa 1-2 Zakynthos (Football League)
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Larisa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Panionios | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ellas Syros | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Kallithea | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Panthrakikos | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Panserraikos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Asteras Tripolis II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Apollon Pontou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | PAOK II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Pyrgos 1968 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Niki Volos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Zakynthos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.