Las Palmas II vs Orihuela Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Las Palmas II and 1.30 for Orihuela, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Las Palmas II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Las Palmas II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Orihuela away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Las Palmas II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Las Palmas II and 1.30 for Orihuela, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Las Palmas II win38%

Draw26%

Orihuela win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–09.6%
0–19.2%
2–18.4%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Las Palmas II

2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Linares Deportivo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Don Benito · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 2-1 (W)

Orihuela

2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorca Deportiva · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs San Fernando CD · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.