Las Palmas II vs Puente Genil Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Las Palmas II and 1.13 for Puente Genil, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Puente Genil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Puente Genil win

45.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.70 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Las Palmas II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Puente Genil away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puente Genil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 23% / 31% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Las Palmas II and 1.13 for Puente Genil, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Las Palmas II win23%

Draw31%

Puente Genil win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

0–118.1%
0–016.0%
1–112.7%
1–011.2%
0–210.3%

Recent form

Las Palmas II

2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Linares Deportivo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Don Benito · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 2-1 (W)

Puente Genil

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamaraceite · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Lucena · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Marbella · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Estepona · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Puente Genil win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.