Las Palmas vs Castellón Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.94 for Castellón, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Castellón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Castellón win

64.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 1.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Las Palmas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Castellón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Las Palmas win14%

Draw21%

Castellón win65%

Double chance 1X

35%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

86%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

0–112.7%
0–212.4%
1–110.0%
1–29.7%
0–38.0%

Recent form

Las Palmas

2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 1-2 (L)

Castellón

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Andorra · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-21T20:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 1-1 Castellón (Segunda División)
2025-11-30T20:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 0-1 Castellón (Segunda División)
2021-02-27T19:30:00.000Z · Las Palmas 0-4 Castellón (Segunda División)
2020-10-21T17:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 2-1 Castellón (Segunda División)
2019-12-17T19:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 2-0 Castellón (Copa del Rey)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	10	8	0	2	13	24
2	Castellón	10	7	2	1	14	23
3	Eibar	10	7	1	2	9	22
4	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	2	19
6	Girona	10	5	3	2	8	18
7	Mallorca	10	5	3	2	7	18
8	Burgos	10	5	2	3	3	17
9	Oviedo	10	5	2	3	3	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	2	16
11	Eldense	10	4	2	4	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	3	3	4	-1	12
15	Cordoba	10	4	0	6	-5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	3	2	5	-6	11
17	Leganes	10	3	2	5	-9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	-4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	2	2	6	-7	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	-2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	-13	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	-16	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Castellón win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.