Las Palmas vs Leganes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.00 for Leganes, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Las Palmas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Las Palmas win

51.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Las Palmas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leganes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Las Palmas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Las Palmas and 1.00 for Leganes, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Las Palmas win51%

Draw25%

Leganes win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.9%
1–111.9%
2–09.5%
2–19.5%
0–07.5%

Recent form

Las Palmas

2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 1-2 (L)

Leganes

2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cadiz · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	10	8	0	2	13	24
2	Castellón	10	7	2	1	14	23
3	Eibar	10	7	1	2	9	22
4	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	2	19
6	Girona	10	5	3	2	8	18
7	Mallorca	10	5	3	2	7	18
8	Burgos	10	5	2	3	3	17
9	Oviedo	10	5	2	3	3	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	2	16
11	Eldense	10	4	2	4	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	3	3	4	-1	12
15	Cordoba	10	4	0	6	-5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	3	2	5	-6	11
17	Leganes	10	3	2	5	-9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	-4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	2	2	6	-7	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	-2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	-13	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	-16	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Las Palmas win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.