· Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Las Palmas vs União de Leiria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.25 for União de Leiria, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives União de Leiria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
União de Leiria win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Las Palmas home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
União de Leiria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União de Leiria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 15% / 30% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Las Palmas and 1.25 for União de Leiria, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.7%
- 0–017.4%
- 0–213.6%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–08.7%
Recent form
Las Palmas
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Cadiz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-0 (W)
União de Leiria
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Amarante · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is União de Leiria win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.