Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Las Palmas and 0.88 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Las Palmas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Las Palmas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valladolid away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Las Palmas win43%

Draw30%

Valladolid win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–015.1%
1–113.2%
0–012.9%
0–111.3%
2–08.9%

Recent form

Las Palmas

2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar · 2-3 (L)

Valladolid

2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T19:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 2-1 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2025-11-14T19:30:00.000Z · Las Palmas 1-0 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2025-02-28T20:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 1-1 Valladolid (La Liga)
2024-12-07T13:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 2-1 Valladolid (La Liga)
2022-03-19T17:15:00.000Z · Las Palmas 1-0 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2021-12-15T19:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 1-3 Valladolid (Copa del Rey)
2021-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · Las Palmas 1-1 Valladolid (Segunda División)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Castellón	11	8	2	1	18	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	13	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	7	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	4	20
6	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	-2	19
8	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Burgos	10	5	2	3	3	17
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	2	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	-3	15
12	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	-2	14
13	Eldense	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	-5	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	3	3	5	-5	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	-9	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	0	10
19	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	-4	10
20	Real Sociedad II	11	2	2	7	-8	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	-15	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	-14	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.